Sunday, March 29, 2009

Key economic happenings Q4 FY09

Time for a recap on key economic data and the likely scenario emerging in FY10.
a)
  • Rupee is likely to weaken in FY10.While currently running at 48-50 to the dollar , the rupee is likely to hit Rs56-58 by the end of FY10.
  • Comapnies foreign liablities will haunt them in FY10 hurting their profitablity.Higher debt servicing means higher costs and lower profits ; for companies with positions in currency derivatives (not yet unwound), it will mean losses .Most had hedged the currrency at 42-45 to the dollar .
  • Rupees value is exclusively measured by the Foreign ecxchange reserves with the RBI.
  • A weak rupee will not attract capital investment in FY10.(lets see?)
  • Capital flight throught portfolio outflows would continue .
  • All forms of supplier credit likely to dry up.
  • Dollar demand from both importers and exporters would continue to rise.